After months of relative quiet, COVID-19 is once again gaining ground — yet the world appears to be watching with half-closed eyes. Global SARS-CoV-2 infections rose by more than 19,000 last month compared to the previous one, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). But experts say the real toll is far higher, hidden behind collapsing surveillance systems and public fatigue.
“We don’t have a complete picture of virus circulation or of the variants that are out there,” warns Maria Van Kerkhove, interim head of epidemic management at the WHO. “There’s a collective amnesia right now about COVID-19.”
Surveillance in Retreat
Once-routine testing, sequencing, and reporting have largely vanished. Fewer than 35 countries still submit regular COVID-19 data to WHO. Many cases now go undetected or unreported, even when confirmed by at-home antibody kits.
“Without robust surveillance,” says Antonia Ho of the University of Glasgow, “it’s difficult to design and time vaccine roll-outs that match circulating strains.”
Today, scientists rely mainly on hospital admissions and wastewater monitoring to track trends — crude but useful indicators of community spread.
Two Variants Dominate the Scene
Genomic analyses show two variants in global circulation:
XFG (Stratus) — nicknamed the “Frankenstein variant,” it now makes up three-quarters of reported cases, dominating in Europe and the Americas.
NB.1.8.1 (Nimbus) — responsible for about 15% of cases, it leads in the Western Pacific.
Their symptoms mirror those of earlier strains — fever, cough, congestion — though Nimbus adds a distinctive “razor-blade” sore throat.
Vaccination in the Era of Apathy
Current campaigns focus narrowly on the elderly and immunocompromised.
Epidemiologist Michael Head (University of Southampton) argues for broader coverage: “It’s still not a pleasant infection, and vaccines continue to offer a meaningful public-health benefit.”
Many Western countries have merged COVID-19 boosters with the annual flu vaccination drive, assuming COVID-19 behaves seasonally. Yet that assumption is being challenged.
Is COVID-19 Seasonal?
While early data suggested higher transmission in cooler temperatures (3–17 °C), hospitalizations also rise during summer months.
“You can walk into an emergency room in July and still find COVID cases,” says Ziyad Al-Aly of Washington University.
The evidence hints that COVID-19 is not strictly seasonal, raising the question of whether vaccine campaigns should run year-round instead of only before winter.
The Road Ahead
The “holy grail,” scientists agree, would be a combined flu-COVID vaccine protecting against multiple strains of both viruses — but that goal remains distant.
Until then, experts urge vigilance, regular sequencing, and sustained vaccination. The virus may be evolving slowly, but global attention is fading faster.
Citation:
Katie Kavanagh, “COVID-19 is spreading again — how serious is it and what are the symptoms?”, Nature News, 4 November 2025. DOI: 10.1038/d41586-025-03412-x